Jeff Cost

Cincinnati Home Loan

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Case Shiller Price Index Shows An Annual Growth Rate Of Home Prices

September 25, 2013 by Jeff Cost Leave a Comment

Case Shiller Price Index Shows An Annual Growth Rate Of Home PricesHome prices were still gaining in July, but for 15 of 20 cities included the S&P Case-Shiller 10 and 20-city Home Price Indices, the pace of increasing home prices is slowing down. National home prices rose by 1.80 percent in July as compared to 2.20 percent in June.

Home prices grew by 0.60 percent from June to July on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This was the lowest month-to-month gain since September 2012.

David Blitzer, index committee chairman of S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that higher mortgage rates are hitting the housing market. Mr. Blitzer noted that mortgage rates rose by more than a percentage point between May and the Federal Reserve’s statement last week.

The Fed was widely expected to reduce its monthly bond purchases from $85 billion to $75 billion, but the Fed decided not to reduce its bond purchases as the economy has not recovered sufficiently.

Mortgage Rates Fall

High home prices and unemployment are making it difficult for first-time and moderate income buyers to compete; buyers sitting on the sidelines are eventually expected to add to the demand for homes.

Mortgage rates fell after the Fed’s announcement, but Mr. Blitzer said that the drop in mortgage rates would likely have a temporary impact on housing. He said that the rate of increase [in home prices] may have peaked.

Conditions contributing to the run-up in home prices include a shortage of available homes and pent-up demand among home buyers. As of July, home prices for the Case-Shiller 20-city index increased by 12.40 percent year-over-year; this was the highest annual rate of increase since home prices peaked in 2006.

Home prices in the Case-Shiller 10-city index increased by 12.30 percent annually. In spite of the rapid price gains, July home prices remained 21 percent below their pre-recession peak.

Home prices in all 20 cities included in the 10 and 20 city indices increased on a month-to-month basis, with home prices increasing by 1.80 percent for the 20 city index and by 1.80 percent for the 10 city index.

Home Prices Show Strong Recovery

Las Vegas, Nevada had the highest annual gain in home prices for July with a 28 percent increase. Las Vegas was one of the cities hardest hit by the recession. Annual home prices for San Francisco, California rose by 25 percent, and New York City had the lowest annual growth rate for home prices at 3.50 percent.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, released its home prices report for properties securing mortgage loans owned or backed by Fannie and Freddie. The annual growth rate for home prices was 8.80 percent as of July, but remains 9.60 percent lower than the peak growth rate reported in April 2007.

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: Housing Analysis,Housing Market Index,Mortgage Rates

Highest Existing Home Sales Since February 2007

September 24, 2013 by Jeff Cost Leave a Comment

Highest Existing Home Sales Since February 2007Sales of existing homes reached their highest volume in almost six years in August. The National Association of REALTORS reported Thursday that sales of existing homes rose 1.70 percent in August to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million existing homes sold.

This was the highest number of existing home sales since February of 2007.

August’s results exceeded estimates of 5.20 existing homes sold, which was based on July’s unrevised reading of 5.39 million existing homes sold.

The NAR also reported that the national median home price increased to $212,100 in August. This represents a year-over-year increase of 14.70 percent and was the largest annual increase in the national median home price since October 2005.

Sales concentrated in areas with higher home prices contributed to this significant increase in the national median home price.

Homebuyers Increase Despite Higher Home Rates

The reading for existing home sales in August suggests that homebuyers are not shying away from higher home loan rates; it may also indicate that the recent shortage of existing homes for sale is beginning to ease.

August’s higher number of existing home sales was attributed to home buyers anxious to lock in lower loan rates in an environment of rising mortgage rates. Also, economists had expected the Federal Reserve to begin reducing its monthly securities purchases, which did not happen.

Had the Fed tapered its securities purchases, long-term interest rates including mortgage rates, would likely have continued rising. The Fed may have decided not to reduce its monthly securities purchase in an effort to slow rising mortgage rates.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has increased by more than one percentage point since May. Home buyers may respond to rising mortgage rates by delaying their home purchase to see if mortgage rates will fall, or they may rush to buy a home before rates go higher.

Mortgage Rates Affect Home Buyers In Three Ways:

1. As rates increase, monthly house payments also rise, which can impact affordability for first-time and moderate income buyers.

2. National unemployment rates remain higher than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 6.50 percent. While home prices are increasing and other facets of the economy are showing improvement, jobless claims remain higher than average.

3. Mortgage credit requirements are strict; this keeps some would-be buyers from qualifying for a home loan.

These factors are offset by high demand for homes and short supplies of available homes and developed lots in some areas. 

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: Housing Analysis,Home Buyer Tips,Housing Market

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week — September 23, 2013

September 23, 2013 by Jeff Cost Leave a Comment

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 23, 2013Last week’s economic news was dominated by the Federal Reserve’s decision not to taper its $85 billion in monthly securities purchases.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke noted in a scheduled statement after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that economic conditions were not yet adequately improved to withstand any decrease in the federal quantitative easing program.

The Fed also reaffirmed that the target federal funds rate would remain at 0.00 to 0.25 percent until the national unemployment rate reached 6.50 percent and inflation reaches 2.00 percent.

The national unemployment rate was 7.30 percent and the Fed projects that inflation will remain under 2.00 percent through 2015.

In both the FOMC statement and his press conference, Chairman Bernanke repeatedly emphasized that the Fed would take no action to reduce QE until the economy strengthens. No automatic reduction of QE purchases would take place without full consideration of the nation’s economy.

The QE program is intended to keep long-term interest rates low, and the announcement that QE would not be tapered brought mortgage rates down after they had increased by more than one percent since May.

Builder Confidence High, Mortgage Rates Lower

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for September revealed that home builder confidence in housing market conditions remained stable at 58; a reading of 59 was expected. Readings over 50 indicate that more builders are confident about market conditions than not.

Housing starts for August did not reflect the high level of builder confidence and fell short of expectations at 891,000. Expected housing starts were estimated at 921,000. There was good news in that August’s reading surpassed the July reading of 883 housing starts. Building permits for August also dropped to 918,000 against expectations of 955,000 and July’s reading of 954,000 building permits.

Higher labor and materials costs and concerns over tight mortgage credit and rising mortgage rates likely contributed to the lower than expected readings for housing starts and building permits.

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported that average mortgage rates dropped across the board on Thursday. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by seven basis points to 4.50 percent with discount points moving from 0.80 percent to 0.70 percent.

The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell by five basis points from 3.59 percent to 3.54 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.70 percent.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was lower by 11 basis points to 3.11 percent. Discount points were unchanged at 0.50 percent. This provides a break for home buyers who’ve been faced with rising mortgage rates and home prices amidst a shortage of available homes in many areas.

This Week

Economic news scheduled for this week includes the Case/Shiller Home Price Index for July, the FHFA Home Price Index also for July. New home sales and the pending home sales index will be released.

Freddie Mac will release its weekly summary of average mortgage rates and weekly jobless claims will also be released Thursday. The week will end with consumer related data including personal income and consumer spending for August along with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for September.

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: Housing Analysis,Mortgage Rates,Housing Market

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Jeff Cost
Sr. Loan Officer

Cincinnati, OH Mortgage Lender
NMLS# 21688


jeffrey.cost@ccm.com

Call (513) 403-6260
Fax (941) 567-5222

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