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Cincinnati Home Loan

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates : Week Of July 5, 2011

July 5, 2011 by Jeff Cost Leave a Comment

Jobs will be in focus this weekMortgage markets worsened last week as Wall Street’s renewed optimism pushed equities to their best one-week gain in 2 years. The change in  sentiment was bad news for rate shoppers, however, as investors pored into stocks at the expense of bonds.

Last week, for the first time since February, mortgage rates rose 5 days in a row. By the time bond markets closed for the 3-day weekend, conforming fixed mortgage rates in Kentucky had climbed to their worst levels since mid-May.

Mortgage rates are now at 7-week highs.

The biggest reason for last week’s mortgage rate turnaround is that lawmakers in Greece approved a national austerity plan. Reaching an accord on spending cuts and tax increases was a necessary step for the nation-state to avoid defaulting on its debt and falling into bankruptcy.

Until last week, it wasn’t clear whether the Greek Parliament would reach this agreement, and this fear is why mortgage rates were down through May and June. Faloout from a default would have created global economic uncertainty and uncertainty tends to be good for mortgage rates.

With agreement reached, though, that uncertainty is minimized. Mortgage rates are reversing. 

This week, the big news will be June’s Non-Farm Payroll report, set for release Friday morning. If jobs growth is stronger-than-expected, stock markets should continue to post gains and mortgage rates should continue to rise.

The jobs report is a market-mover. If you’re floating a mortgage rate and wondering whether to lock, it may be prudent to lock ahead of Friday’s release.

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: Greece,Non-Farm Payrolls

5-Year ARM Falls To Historic Lows

July 1, 2011 by Jeff Cost Leave a Comment

30-year fixed vs 5-year ARM

The interest rate differential between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages continues to widen and has now reached historic levels.

There’s never been a better time to lock an ARM.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, homeowners in Louisville who lock their mortgage rate today will save 129 basis points on rate, on average, by choosing a 5-year ARM as their mortgage product as compared to a 30-year fixed rate loan.

The average 30-year fixed rate is 4.51%. The average 5-year ARM rate is 3.22%.

It’s the biggest interest rate spread between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage rates in Freddie Mac’s recorded history; a gap which is the result, in part, of the 5-year ARM dropping to all-time lows this week.

Rates for the 5-year ARM are even lower than during last year’s historic Refi Boom.

Putting today’s “spread” in action against a hypothetical $250,000 loan size, a homeowner that chooses an ARM over a fixed-rate loan would save $184.30 monthly, and would have $500 fewer closing costs.

That’s a 5-year savings of $11,558 — nearly triple what you would have saved just 2 years ago.

The main reason why today’s adjustable-rate mortgages are priced so aggressively relative to comparable fixed-rate loans is that Wall Street expects the economy to drag for the next several quarters, after which it expects an acceleration. 

ARMs tend to reflect short-term expectations for the U.S. economy which is why short-term mortgage rates are dropping.  Fixed products, by contrast, take a longer view and expectations for an economic rebound are pulling fixed-rate mortgage rates up.

For now, mortgage applicants can exploit the difference — especially those who plan to move within the next 5 years — but adjustable-rate mortgages aren’t right for everyone. ARMs carry particular risks about which you should be aware before locking.

Before you choose an ARM, therefore, talk it through with your loan officer. 

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: ARM,Fixed Rate,Freddie Mac

Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Spike In May

June 30, 2011 by Jeff Cost Leave a Comment

Pending Home SalesThe summer housing market is heating up.

According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, the Pending Home Sales Index smashed analyst expectations, jumping 8 percent on a monthly basis in May. 

Wall Street calls were for an increase of just 0.5 percent. 

It was a surprise result that, coupled with the recent stronger-than-expected New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales readings, has sparked housing market optimism in Ohio and nationwide.

The biggest reason for the optimism is because of what the Pending Home Sales Index measures. 

In contrast to “traditional” housing data which reports on how housing performed two months ago, for example, the Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking indicator; a predictor of future market activity based on freshly-written contracts between buyers and sellers.

In other words, the Pending Home Sales Index looks ahead — not back. This is reflected in its methodology which states that 80% of homes under contract close within 2 months, and a large percentage of the rest close within Months 3 and 4.

Because May’s Pending Home Sales Index rose sharply, therefore, we can expect similar jumps in the Existing Home Sales figures of June and July.

For housing and home prices, this is a positive but the gains won’t apply to each home equally. The Pending Home Sales Index is still a national report for a market built on local sales. What’s happening on your particular street in your particular neighborhood may not reflect what’s happening somewhere else.

For accurate, real-time data in your local market, ask a real estate agent for statistics.

 

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: Pending Home Sales,National Association of REALTORS

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Jeff Cost
Sr. Loan Officer

Cincinnati, OH Mortgage Lender
NMLS# 21688


jeffrey.cost@ccm.com

Call (513) 403-6260
Fax (941) 567-5222

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