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Cincinnati Home Loan

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What Will The Debt Ceiling Agreement Do To Mortgage Rates?

August 2, 2011 by Jeff Cost Leave a Comment

Debt ceiling debate resolutionThe United States is projected to reach its legal $14.294 trillion debt limit today. The limit was set by Congress February 12, 2010. The U.S. Treasury may not issue new debt beyond the debt ceiling.

Since April 2011, Congress has debated ways to remain below the nation’s $14.292 trillion borrowing limit. The debate commenced with the passage of the 2011 U.S. Federal Budget which featured a $1.645 trillion deficit.

This multi-trillion dollar deficit ensured that the debt ceiling would be touched at some point during the current fiscal year.

That date was May 16. It took an intervention from the Treasury Secretary to temporarily extend the limits; an “extraordinary measure” meant to keep the U.S. government from defaulting on its debt.

With additional room to borrow, then, the U.S. Treasury’s new debt ceiling date was moved to August 2. Congress has been debating the federal budget since mid-May with the dual-goal of (1) Remaining below the federal debt limit, and (2) Creating a budgetary surplus for the future.

An agreement is expected today.

For home buyers and rate shoppers in Louisville , this is an important development. The debt ceiling agreement will influence mortgage markets and, as a result, require amendments to home affordability calculations. As mortgage rates change, your purchasing power does, too.

Unfortunately, we don’t know in which direction mortgage rates will go.

Since the prospect of a deal was first hinted Friday, mortgage rates have been improving. Conforming, 30-year fixed rates are down nearly 0.250 percent, lowering a $150,000 mortgage payment by $22 per month.

The final deal terms of a deal, however, could lead rates higher.

As always, the safest play is to lock your mortgage rate if you are comfortable with its proposed payment. Yes, mortgage rates may move lower in the future but, then again, maybe they’ll move higher.

Filed Under: The Economy Tagged With: Debt Ceiling,Mortgage Rates,Congress

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 1, 2011

August 1, 2011 by Jeff Cost Leave a Comment

Jobs report will move mortgage ratesMortgage markets improved last week as the U.S. debt ceiling debate continued on Capitol Hill. Bonds traded in a range Monday through Thursday before breaking higher Friday morning.

30-year fixed conforming mortgage rates improved in OH last week, falling to levels just north the product’s all-time low set in November 2010.

5-year ARMs improved last week, too. The benchmark adjustable-rate mortgage’s average national rate is now tied with its all-time low, also set last November.

This week, the direction of mortgage rates depends on two events:

  1. The resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling debate, due Tuesday
  2. The July Non-Farm Payrolls report, due Friday

Mortgage rates will be volatile as markets grapple with the expectations for the above events, and their eventual outcomes. 

Sunday evening, for example, congressional leaders reached an agreement to raise the U.S. debt ceiling by $2.1 trillion, and to introduce $2.5 trillion in budget cuts within 10 years. The deal must pass Congress, however, and until it does, speculation will push mortgage rates around.

Friday’s jobs report should swing mortgage rates, too. 

After starting the year strong, the 2011 jobs market has faded. Net new jobs have dropped 5 months in the row and the national Unemployment Rate is climbing. Weak job growth portends weak consumer spending and a weak economy — typically two outcomes that are good for mortgage rates. 

Because of doubt cast by the debt ceiling debate, though, it’s too soon to know how Wall Street will react to the jobs data — strong or weak.

For now, mortgage rates remain low. They may fall further, or they may not. The “safe bet” is to lock.

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: Debt Ceiling,Non-Farm Payrolls,Unemployment Rate

Pending Home Sales Rise For 3rd Straight Month

July 29, 2011 by Jeff Cost Leave a Comment

Pending Home Sales 2009-2011Buyers are writing contracts at a furious pace nationwide.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Pending Home Sales Index rose 2 percent last month to reach its highest level since March.

A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. 

The forward-looking Pending Home Sales Index is up 11 percent from its low of the year, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, and well ahead of its rolling 6-month average.

Unfortunately, national data isn’t always helpful for buyers and sellers in Cincinnati and nationwide. To help make data more relevant, therefore, the official Pending Home Sales Index report includes a region-by-region breakdown. 

Between May and June 2011, results were mixed:

  • Northeast Region: -0.4%
  • Midwest Region : -3.7%
  • South Region : +4.4%
  • West Region : +6.4%

However, even the value of regional data may be dubious.

The West Region, for example, which showed big gains in June, is comprised of multiple states containing thousands of cities and towns. Some of those areas outperformed the region, and some of them underperformed. The Pending Home Sales Index doesn’t show which towns did which. It can’t.

For everyday buyers and sellers in Florence , it’s the local data that matters.

The Pending Home Sales Index shows that more contracts were written in June than in April or May — a good sign for housing overall. And because 80% of all contracts close within 60 days, we can expect the summer’s home resale activity to be high.

This leads home prices higher.

With mortgage rates low and home sales spiking, now may be the best time to buy a home in 2011. Home prices appear to be rising and mortgage rates should, too.

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: Pending Home Sales,National Association of REALTORS,Existing Home Sales

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Jeff Cost
Sr. Loan Officer

Cincinnati, OH Mortgage Lender
NMLS# 21688


jeffrey.cost@ccm.com

Call (513) 403-6260
Fax (941) 567-5222

Cross Country Mortgage

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