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New Home Sales Revised Higher In February; Slip 7% In March

April 25, 2012 by Jeff Cost

New Home Sales 2011-2012Sales of new homes ticked lower in March, unexpectedly.

Based on Census Bureau data, the number of new, single-family homes sold in March slipped 7 percent from February — the largest one-month drop in more than a year. 

On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, buyers in Ohio and nationwide purchased 328,000 newly-built homes last month. The decrease in sales from February to March can be attributed, in part, though, to a massive upward revision in February’s figures.

Last month, the Census Bureau had reported 313,000 new home sales in February on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This month, those sales were re-measured to be 353,000 — an increase of 13 percent.

January’s sales were revised higher, too.

The long-term trend in the market for new homes remains “up”. This is no more apparent than when we look at the available new home inventory.

At the close of March, just 144,000 new homes were available for purchase, down 2,000 from the month prior and representing the most sparse new home housing supply since at least 1993, the year that the Census Bureau starting tracking such data. 

At the current pace of sales, the new home housing stock would be sold out in 5.3 months. A six-month supply is believed to represent a market in balance.

For new home buyers in Louisville , March’s New Home Sales report does not represent a housing market pull-back. It may represent opportunity, however.

From October 2011 to February 2012, housing data was uniformly strong. Home sales were higher, home supplies were lower, and confidence was rising. In March, it was the reverse. This is normal because growth is rarely linear. 

In any market, it’s a few steps forward and a single step back, and housing is likely showing a similar pattern. With mortgage rates still low and builder confidence down, it’s a terrific time to shop new construction.

There are deals to be found for buyers who seek them out. 

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: Census Bureau, New Home Sales, New Home Supply

The Fed Starts A 2-Day Meeting Today. Make A Strategy.

April 24, 2012 by Jeff Cost

Fed Funds Rate vs Mortgage Rates 1990-2012

The Federal Open Market Committee begins a 2-day meeting today in the nation’s capitol. It’s the group’s third of 8 scheduled meetings this year. Mortgage rates are expected to change upon the Fed’s adjournment.

Led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, the FOMC is a 12-person, Federal Reserve sub-committee. The FOMC is the group within the Fed which votes on U.S. monetary policy. “Making monetary policy” can mean a lot of things, and the action for which the FOMC is most well-known is its setting of the Fed Funds Funds.

The Fed Funds Rate is the overnight interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other. It’s one of many interest rates set by the Fed.

However, one series of interest rates not set by the Fed is mortgage rates. Instead, mortgage rates are based on the prices of mortgage-backed bonds and bonds are bought and sold on Wall Street.

There is little historical correlation between the Fed Funds Rate and the common, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate.

As the chart at top shows, since 1990, the Fed Funds Rate and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate have followed different paths. Sometimes, they’ve moved in the same direction. Sometimes, they’ve moved in opposite directions. 

They’ve been separated by as much as 5.29 percent at times, and have been as near to each other as 0.52 percent.

Today, that spread is roughly 3.65 percent. It’s expected to change beginning 12:30 PM ET Wednesday. That’s when the FOMC will adjourn from its meeting and release its public statement to the markets.

The FOMC is expected to announce no change in the Fed Funds Rate, holding the benchmark rate within in its current target range of 0.000-0.250%. However, how mortgage rates in and around Cincinnati respond will depend on the verbiage of the FOMC statement. 

In general, if the Fed acknowledges that the U.S. economy as in expansion; growing from job growth and consumer spending, mortgage rates are expected to rise. If the Fed shows concern about domestic and global economic growth, mortgage rates are expected to fall. 

Any time that mortgage markets are expected to move, a safe play is to stop shopping your rate and start locking it. Today may be one of those times.

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: Fed Funds Rate, Federal Reserve, FOMC

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : April 23, 2012

April 23, 2012 by Jeff Cost

FOMC meets this weekMortgage markets were mostly unchanged last week, breaking a three-week winning streak. Wall Street grappled with surprising demand on Spain’s debt issuance and a series of weaker-than-expected data points on U.S. housing.

Conforming mortgage rates across Kentucky rose slightly according to the weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

Nationwide, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate climbed 2 basis points to 3.90%. This rate is available to homeowners willing to pay 0.8 discount points and a full set of closing costs, where 1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of the borrowed amount.

Prior to last week’s survey, just 0.7 discount points were required.

This week, mortgage rates are expected to be volatile. There is a lot of economic data due for release, the Eurozone’s issues with sovereign debt remain unresolved, and the Federal Open Market Committee gets together for a scheduled, 2-day meeting.

On the data front, the week starts with Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence figures and the government’s New Home Sales report. Both have the power to move mortgage rates. The week then concludes with the Pending Home Sales Index; the GDP release; and a series of Treasury auctions.

With respect to Europe, demand remains strong for debt from Spain, but at much higher rates as compared to several weeks ago. The same is true for Italy. Both nations are feared to be at risk of default on their respective sovereign debt. It’s a similar situation to that which occurred in Greece throughout 2011.

Long-term, lingering concerns for Spain and Italy would likely help keep U.S. mortgage rates suppressed.

And, lastly, the Federal Reserve will make a statement to markets Wednesday afternoon. The Fed is the nation’s central banker and its post-meeting press releases have tremendous influence on bond markets, including those for mortgage-backed bonds.

By extension, therefore, the Federal Reserve’s statement has the power to move mortgage rates in and around Louisville.

If you’re shopping for mortgage rates, it’s as good of a time as any to lock with your lender. Rates have more room to rise than to fall.

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: FOMC, Greece, Spain

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Jeff Cost
Sr. Loan Officer

Cincinnati, OH Mortgage Lender
NMLS# 21688


jeffrey.cost@ccm.com

Call (513) 403-6260
Fax (941) 567-5222

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