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Make Your Mortgage Rate Strategy : The Federal Reserve Starts A 2-Day Meeting

November 1, 2011 by Jeff Cost

Comparing the Fed Funds Rate to Mortgage RatesThe Federal Open Market Committee begins a scheduled, 2-day meeting today, the seventh of its 8 scheduled meetings this year, and the eighth Fed meeting overall.

The FOMC is a 12-person sub-committee within the Federal Reserve. It’s the group responsible for setting the nation’s monetary policy and is led by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The FOMC’s most well-known role is as the steward of the Fed Funds Rate. This is the overnight rate at which U.S. banks borrow money from each other. The Fed Funds Rate is a unique, “banking” interest rate, and should not be confused with consumer interest rates, a category which includes “mortgage rates”.

Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve. 

Rather, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds. If mortgage rates correlated to the FOMC’s Fed Funds Rate, the chart at right would be linear.

That said, the FOMC does exert influence on mortgage markets.

After its FOMC meetings, the Federal Reserve issues a press release to the public. In it, the central banker summarizes economic conditions nationwide, highlighting threats to the economy and areas of strength.

When the Federal Reserve’s statement is generally “positive”, mortgage rates tend to rise. This is because a strengthening economy invites investors to assume more risk, spurring equity markets at the expense of all bonds types, including the mortgage-backed kind.

When bond markets lose, mortgage rates rise.

Conversely, when the Fed is generally negative, bond markets gain, pushing mortgage rates lower throughout OH.

The Fed can also influence mortgage rates via new policy.

At its last meeting, the FOMC launched a new, $400-billion round of mortgage-market stimulus known as Operation Twist. The added mortgage-bond support led mortgage rates lower post-FOMC meeting. 

The Fed may expand Operation Twist as soon as Wednesday afternoon. It may also take no such steps at all. Unfortunately, there are few clues about what the Federal Reserve may do next, if anything at all. As a result, mortgage rates will be a moving target for the next 36 hours. First, they’ll be volatile before of the Fed’s statement. Then, they’ll be volatile after the Fed’s statement.

Even if the Fed does nothing, mortgage rates will change so your safest play is to lock a mortgage rate ahead of Wednesday’s 2:15 PM ET adjournment.

There too much risk in floating.

Filed Under: Federal Reserve Tagged With: Fed Funds Rate, FOMC, Operation Twist

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 31, 2011

October 31, 2011 by Jeff Cost

Federal Reserve meeting this weekMortgage markets moved across a wide range last week before, ultimately, finishing unchanged. The bailout of Greece both dominated headlines and dictated market direction.

It was a wild ride for rate shoppers.

Early in the week, mortgage rates spiked. Eurozone leaders expressed optimism that a deal for Greece’s solvency would be made, rhetoric to which Wall Street responded selling mortgage bonds.

When markets closed Wednesday, conforming mortgage rates in Ohio were at their highest levels since September.

However, when markets opened Thursday, rates began to reverse lower. Investors deemed the details of the Greece fuzzy, and, once again, sought safety in the U.S. mortgage bond market.

As such, rates fell through Friday afternoon, closing the week precisely where they started.

This week’s market action figures to be similarly busy. In addition to Friday’s release of the October Non-Farm Payrolls data, the Federal Open Market Committee starts a 2-day meeting Tuesday.

It’s the FOMC’s 7th scheduled meeting of the year.

The FOMC is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy-setting group. It does not set mortgage rates for citizens of Columbus , but it can exert an influence. For example, if the FOMC votes to increase the size of its Operation Twist, mortgage rates may respond favorably, causing rates to fall. 

Conversely, if the FOMC scales back the size of its program because of inflationary concerns or otherwise, mortgage rates should rise. 

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting ends at 2:15 PM ET Wednesday and mortgage rates are typically volatile in the hours surrounding the group’s adjournment. If you’re floating a mortgage rate or deciding whether to lock, keep this date and time in mind.

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: FOMC, Greece, Non-Farm Payrolls

Pending Home Sales Index Slips For 4th Straight Month

October 28, 2011 by Jeff Cost

Pending Home SalesNationwide, fewer homes are going under contract to sell.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell 5 percent last month. September marks the fourth consecutive month in which the index has dropped. 

The Pending Home Sales Index is a monthly index which measures the number of homes under contract to sell, but not yet closed. As such, it’s among the few “forward-looking” housing indicators; a data set meant to predict future home sales. 

80% of homes under contract close within 2 months so, if the September Pending Home Sales Index is to be believed, we should expect home sales to decline through October and November. 

And that’s before we account for cancelled contracts.

Also from the National Association of REALTORS®, we learn that 18 percent of homes under contract failed to close in September. This is double the failure rate from September 2010 and it, too, should drag Existing Home Sales volume lower this fall.

On a seasonally-adjusted, regional basis, the Pending Home Sales Index fell everywhere. 

  • Northeast Region: -4.7% from August
  • Midwest Region : -6.2% from August
  • South Region : -5.5% from August
  • West Region : -2.1% from August

For home buyers and sellers in Columbus , though, regional data remains too broad to be useful. Housing markets are local, meaning that each block on each street on each city has its own distinct economy. When 9 states are grouped into a single “region”, it’s neither helpful nor relevant to people making buy/sell decisions.

That said, the Pending Home Sales Index remains important because it’s about housing, and housing is a keystone of the U.S. economic recovery.

The market looks ideal for buyers. Home prices are rising, but slowly; and mortgage rates remain near rock-bottom levels. Home affordability is high and should remain that way for the next few weeks.

If you’re shopping for a home, it’s an excellent time to go under contract.

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: Existing Home Sales, NAR, Pending Home Sales

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Jeff Cost
Sr. Loan Officer

Cincinnati, OH Mortgage Lender
NMLS# 21688


jeffrey.cost@ccm.com

Call (513) 403-6260
Fax (941) 567-5222

Cross Country Mortgage

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