Jeff Cost

Cincinnati Home Loan

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 11, 2012

June 11, 2012 by Jeff Cost

Spain Bailout USD$125 billionMortgage markets worsened last week, halting a multi-week mortgage rate winning streak in Ohio and nationwide. With little economic news on which to trade, investors took their cues from the world’s central banks.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke neither dismissed nor promised new market stimulus in the near future, nor did leaders in the Eurozone. China, however, did cut its interest rates for the first time since the start of the global financial crisis.

Conforming mortgage rates edged higher amid a series of volatile trading sessions. Mortgage bonds moved more sharply as compared to prior weeks and analysts expect volatility to continue.

Last week, the biggest story was the ongoing deterioration of confidence within the Eurozone. While Greece continues to struggle under its national debt load, Spain emerged as the area’s newest bailout candidate. Then, on Saturday, the bailout was confirmed.

In seeking up to 100 billion euros ($125 billion), Spain becomes the fourth European Union nation to seek bailout funds since the debt crisis began nearly three years ago. 

The Spain bailout temporarily overshadows investor concern for Greece and the nation-state’s June 17 election.

Sunday, the citizens of Greece will vote to elect a new government, the outcome of which may determine whether Greece remains a member of the European Union. If Greece leaves the EU, it would likely make a negative impact on equities markets, and would benefit U.S. mortgage rates.

This week, mortgage markets will take their cues from the political and economic developments abroad. Initially, investors are looking favorably upon the Spain resolution, and mortgage rates are rising as a result. As the Greek election nears, however, that trend may change.

With little or no data set for release, this week’s mortgage rates are subject to investor sentiment. Expect volatility.

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: EU, Greece, Spain

Phoenix Leads Annual Home Price Gains, According To Case-Shiller Index

June 8, 2012 by Jeff Cost

Case-Shiller Index

Standard & Poors released its March 2012 Case-Shiller Index last week. The index is meant to measure changes in home prices from month-to-month, and from year-to-year, in select U.S. cities.

According to the report, home values rose in 12 of the Case-Shiller Index’s 20 tracked markets, and one market remained unchanged.

Of the Case-Shiller markets, Phoenix, Arizona posted the largest one-year gain, climbing 6.1 percent. Atlanta, Georgia posted the largest one-year loss. Values falling more than seventeen percent there year-over-year.

Overall, the Case-Shiller Index was relatively unchanged in March as compared to the month prior, but down nearly 3 percent on an annual basis. Nationwide, says Standard & Poor’s, home values are back to the levels of late-2002.

Don’t be overly concerned, however. Though widely-cited, the Case-Shiller Index is a flawed and misleading metric. It’s methodology almost guarantees it.

The first flaw in the Case-Shiller Index is its limited geography. Despite there being more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide, the Case-Shiller Index tracks just 20 of them. They’re not the 20 largest ones, either. Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Jose are specifically excluded from the Case-Shiller Index and each is among the Top 10 Most Populous Cities in the United States.

Minneapolis (#48) and Tampa (#55), by contrast, are included.

The Case-Shiller Index’s second flaw is that only tracks the sales of single-family, detached homes. Sales of condominiums and multi-unit homes carry no weight in the index whatsoever — even in cities such as Chicago and New York in which condos can account for a large percentage of the overall real estate market.

And, lastly, when the Case-Shiller Index is published, it’s published on a two-month delay. Buyers and sellers in Cincinnati don’t need housing data from two months ago — they need data from today. The Case-Shiller Index tells us what housing was, in other words. It doesn’t tell us how housing is. 

Buyers and sellers need real-time, actionable information. You can’t get that from the flawed Case-Shiller Index. For more accurate, relevant real estate data, talk to your real estate professional instead. 

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: Case-Shiller Index, Home Values, Standard & Poor's

FHA To Change Its Mortgage Insurance Premium Schedule Monday, June 11, 2012

June 7, 2012 by Jeff Cost

New FHA MIPBeginning Monday, June 11, the FHA is changing its mortgage insurance premium schedule for the second time this year.

Some FHA mortgage applicants will pay lower mortgage insurance premiums going forward. Others will pay more. The new premiums apply to all FHA mortgages, both purchase and refinance.

The MIP update will be the 5th time in four years that the FHA has changed its mortgage insurance premium schedule.

FHA-backed homeowners who have not refinanced within the last 3 years will benefit from the new MIP. This is because, beginning with all FHA Case Numbers assigned on, or after, June 11, 2012, homeowners whose current FHA mortgage pre-dates June 1, 2009 will be entitled to dramatically reduced annual mortgage insurance premiums and almost zero upfront MIP via the FHA Streamline Refinance program.

Whereas new FHA applicants may pay up to 1.25% per year for annual mortgage insurance plus 175 basis points at closing for upfront MIP, the “grandfathered” FHA applicants will pay just 0.55% per year for mortgage insurance and 1 basis point at closing.

Assuming an FHA loan size of $200,000, the savings are large :

  • New FHA applicant : $208 per month for annual MIP; $3,500 due at closing for upfront MIP.
  • Pre-June 2009 FHA applicant : $92 per month for annual MIP; $20 due at closing for upfront MIP.

The premiums apply to all FHA mortgage applicants, regardless of loan product or term. For example, 15-year FHA mortgage will follow the same mortgage insurance premium schedule as a 30-year FHA mortgages.

Another class of FHA-backed homeowners won’t get so lucky. For homeowners in high-cost areas whose mortgages are between $625,500 and the local FHA loan limit, annual mortgage insurance premiums will be raised by 0.25% for all 15-year and 30-year loan terms.

For loan sizes above $625,500, the new annual FHA mortgage insurance premiums are as follows :

  • Loan term of 15 years or fewer, loan-to-value of 90% or less : 0.35% per year
  • Loan term of 15 years or fewer, loan-to-value greater than 90% : 0.60% per year
  • Loan term of more than 15 years, loan-to-value of 95% or less : 1.45% per year
  • Loan term of more than 15 years, loan-to-value greater than 95% : 1.50% per year

FHA-backed homeowners with loan terms of 15 years or fewer, and with loan-to-values below 78%, are exempt from annual MIP. Upfront MIP payments, however, remain mandatory.

The FHA continues to tinker with its mortgage insurance premiums, attempting to strike a balance between affordability for its homeowners and solvency for its program. Experts expect the FHA to change its premiums again. And, when it does, it’s likely that premiums will rise.

If your FHA mortgage will be for more than $625,000, and you plan to make a purchase or refinance application soon, it’s best to get your FHA Case Number prior to Monday, June 11. Otherwise, you’ll pay higher annual MIP.

Against a $700,000 mortgage, the extra 0.25% in MIP per year will add $1,750 to your annual housing payment.

Filed Under: Mortgage Guidelines Tagged With: FHA, MIP, UFMIP

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Jeff Cost
Sr. Loan Officer

Cincinnati, OH Mortgage Lender
NMLS# 21688


jeffrey.cost@ccm.com

Call (513) 403-6260
Fax (941) 567-5222

Cross Country Mortgage

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