Jeff Cost

Cincinnati Home Loan

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Home Values Rose For the 4th Straight Month

October 5, 2011 by Jeff Cost

Home Price Index from April 2007 peak

The government is confirming what the private sector has already shown —  home values are on the rise.

The Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index shows home values rose 0.8% in July.

July marks the fourth straight month that home values climbed and the FHFA’s Home Price Index is the latest in a series of “rising home values” reports — an encouraging trend for buyers and sellers in Louisville and nationwide.

Last week, the S&P Case-Shiller Index showed home value up nearly 1 percent in July. CoreLogic reached a similar conclusion.

Nationwide, values are back to their highest levels since November 2010. Clearly, the housing market in OH is moving in the right direction. Or is it?

Although the data from the government and from private firms such as CoreLogic is encouraging, it’s also flawed. As such, we have to be careful about the conclusions we draw from the data.

The flaws of Home Price Index are glaring :

  1. Only homes backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac are included in the index. In today’s market, because of the FHA’s popularity, that leaves 1 of 3 homes “uncounted”.
  2. Only home resales are counted. New home sales are omitted entirely.
  3. The data comes with a 60-day delay. The October market is different from July’s.

Despite these shortcomings, however, the Home Price Index remains relevant. It’s among the most through home valuation models and it’s often used by economists and policy-makers.

When the Home Price Index is rising, Wall Street and Capitol Hill take notice. For residents of “Main Street”, however, the data may not be as important. To get local, up-to-date market statistics in Florence, for example , talk with a professional real estate agent.

Since peaking in April 2007, the FHFA’s Home Price Index is off 17.6 percent.

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: CoreLogic, Home Price Index, HPI

Conforming Loan Limits Drop In High-Cost Areas

October 4, 2011 by Jeff Cost

Conforming Loan Limits lowered in 2011

For homeowners in high-cost areas nationwide, conforming and FHA loan limits have dropped by as much as 14 percent.

Effective October 1, 2011, the temporary mortgage loan limits that allowed for non-jumbo loan sizes of up to $729,750 are no longer.

$729,750 is above the “normal” loan limit of $417,000.

The elevated limits were put in place in 2008 as the economy and financial sector entered its crisis. At the time, there was little private money to serve buyers and would-be refinancers whose loan sizes exceeded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s maximum $417,000 loan limits.

For most people whose loan sizes exceeded that threshold, mortgage financing was unavailable. There were no lenders to back the loan size.

This was of particular importance in places such as New York City, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. where home prices routinely top $1 million. For people in these areas, unless they had a downpayment that could lower their respective loan sizes to $417,000 or lower, mortgages were mostly unavailable.

Congress recognized this and, as a result, gave Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac temportary authorization to purchase and securitize home loans of up to $729,750 in value, depending on where the subject property was located.

The program helped housing, leading Congress to pass more permanent, location-specific loan limits. Later that same year, Congress passed the Housing and Recovery Act of 2009 which, in part, made high-cost loan limit pricing permanent, albeit at $625,500.

The $729,750 temporary limits expired Friday, September 30, 2011. Today, the maximum allowable conforming loan size is $625,500.

If you live in a high-cost area, therefore, take note. Mortgage rates may be low, but the amount of loan for which you qualify may be less than you expect, and you may find yourself ineligible.

The complete list of high-cost areas is available online.

Filed Under: Mortgage Guidelines Tagged With: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Loan Limits

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 3, 2011

October 3, 2011 by Jeff Cost

Jobs report due this weekMortgage markets deteriorated last week as optimism for a Greek rescue package increased, and as U.S. consumers showed that, despite falling income levels, spending will not be slowed.

As reported by the government, household income dropped in August, falling 0.1 percent and marking the first monthly dip since 2009. Yet, consumer spending still rose, tacking on 0.1 percent. Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy.

In addition, last week Eurozone leaders approved a funding increase for the European “bailout fund”. The additional funding raises the probability that Greece will avoid default on its sovereign debt, and that other nations including Italy, Spain, Ireland and Portugal will avoid similar default scenarios.

The moves drew money away from mortgage markets, causing rates to rise.

Conforming mortgage rates in Kentucky climbed last week, stymying would-be refinancers in search of the lowest mortgage rates in 60 years. Nationally, fixed rate mortgages were higher by as much as 0.25%.

This week, rates may continue climbing.

First, European leaders are expected to finalize the details of a Greek aid package, a move that would reverse the “safe haven” bid which has played a large role in keeping U.S. mortgage rates lows.

Second, the jobs report is due.

Economists are expecting 65,000 net new jobs in September and a slight increase in the Unemployment Rate. A deviation from either consensus expectation should cause mortgage rates to move. 

If it’s shown that more than 65,000 jobs were created last month, mortgage rates should rise on the prospect of a recovering economy. To the contrary, though, if it’s shown that fewer than 65,000 jobs were created, mortgage rates should fall.

The jobs report will be released Friday morning, 8:30 AM ET.

If you’re shopping for a mortgage right now, be aware that rates could move in either direction, but there’s a lot more room for rates to rise than to fall. The “safe” course of action is to lock a rate today.

 

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: Eurozone, Greece, Non-Farms Payrolls

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Jeff Cost
Sr. Loan Officer

Cincinnati, OH Mortgage Lender
NMLS# 21688


jeffrey.cost@ccm.com

Call (513) 403-6260
Fax (941) 567-5222

Cross Country Mortgage

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