Blog - Jeff Cost

Homebuilder Confidence Rises To 5-Year High

August 16, 2012 by Jeff Cost

NAHB HMI 2010-2012 Home builder confidence rises again.

For August 2012, the National Association of Homebuilders reports the monthly Housing Market Index at 37 — an increase of more than 100% from one year ago and the highest HMI value since February 2007.

The Housing Market Index is an indicator of homebuilder confidence and when it reads 50 or better, the HMI suggests favorable conditions for home builders. Readings below 50 suggest unfavorable conditions for builders.

Despite the recent rise in home builder attitudes, however, the Housing Market Index remains mired below 50 where it’s been since April 2006.

For new construction home buyers in Cincinnati , the HMI may offer insight into the market for new homes through the end of this year. This is because the NAHB Housing Market Index is a composite survey, meant to gauge builder sentiment in three specific areas — current business, future business, and buyer activity.

When all three fronts are rising, it points to an improving market for sellers (i.e. home builders). Unfortunately, though, what’s good for sellers can be damaging to buyers. Builders are less willing to make concessions on price or product when markets are getting stronger.

In August, home builders saw strength across all three categories :

Current Single-Family Sales : 39 (+3 from July)
Projected Single-Family Sales : 44 (+1 from July)
Buyer Foot Traffic : 31 (+3 from July)

Especially noteworthy in the August HMI is that builders project more sales for the next six calendar months than they have projected at any time in the last 5 years. With mortgage rates at all-time lows and buyer foot traffic growing, it’s no wonder confidence is high.

When demand for homes is strong amid stagnant or falling supplies, home prices rise and that’s exactly what we’re seeing in many U.S. markets. It’s a good time to be a Ohio home buyer today, but market momentum appears to be shifting.

If you’re in the market for a newly-built home, therefore, the best “deal” may be the one you get today. Next year, your costs may be higher.

Home Affordability Sinks For The First Time In 12 Months

August 15, 2012 by Jeff Cost

Home Affordability Index 2012 Q2 Rising home prices are taking a toll on today’s home buyers. For the first time in 4 quarters — and despite falling mortgage rates — home affordability is sinking.

Earlier this week, the National Association of Home Builders reported the Home Opportunity Index, a measure of home affordability, down to 73.8 for the second quarter of the year. This marks the metric’s first “down” quarter since the second quarter of 2011, and is its lowest reading since December 2010.

A home is considered “affordable” when its payments meet standard mortgage underwriting criteria for families earning the local median income. This definition is used for homes across all U.S. markets — including for homes in Louisville.

73.8% of homes sold last quarter were affordable to households earning the national median income of $65,000. This is the 13th straight quarter dating back to 2009 that the index surpassed 70. Prior to 2009, the Home Opportunity Index had not crossed 70 even one time.

Like all real estate data, home affordability varied by locale.

In the Midwest, for example, affordability was highest. 7 of the top 10 most affordable markets nationwide were spread throughout the nation’s heartland. An Alaskan city took the top spot.

The top 5 most affordable cities for home buyers in Q2 2012 were:

Fairbanks, AK (98.7%)
Mansfield, OH (98.1%)
Springfield, OH (95.9%)
Carson City, NV (95.4%)
Kokomo, IN (95.4%)

At #23, Ocala, Florida (91.7%) was the top-ranked South Region city last quarter.

By contrast, the Northeast Region and Southern California remained among the least affordable housing markets nationwide. Led by the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area, 9 of the 10 least affordable areas were in the Mid-Atlantic and California, and for the 17th consecutive quarter the New York metro area was ranked “Least Affordable”.

Just 29.4 percent of homes were affordable to households earning the area’s median income there, down from 31.5 percent three months ago.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available for download on the NAHB website.

Should You Lease Or Buy Your Next Car? It May Affect Your Mortgage.

August 14, 2012 by Jeff Cost

Should you lease a new car, or should you buy one? Like most financial questions, the answer depends on your situation. For some people, leasing a car presents distinct economic advantages. For others, buying a car is the way to go.

There’s plenty of online material to help you choose your optimal path, but this 3-minute piece from NBC’s The Today Show serves as an excellent summary. In it, you’ll learn about the basics of leasing a car, and for whom leasing can be a great fit. You’ll also hear reasons to avoid a lease completely.

The NBC interview makes all of the following points :

Leasing allows you to drive a car that may be “too expensive” to purchase
Leasing puts you in a new car, with the latest safety features and gadgets, every few years
Buying a car means that you have no mileage limits, and can sell at any time

For many people, it concludes, buying a car is preferable to leasing one, with a notable exception being those people who can claim their car or truck as a tax deduction. Be sure to check with your tax advisor if you plan to take that route.

However, for another group — homeowners and active home buyers — leasing a car can invite mortgage approval trouble. This is because a car lease payment is assumed by a mortgage underwriter to be a perpetual debt; one that never reduces or gets extinguished. When a lease is complete, it must be replaced with a new lease, and so on.

Therefore, no matter how many payments remain in a lease, mortgage applicants must use the full car lease payment for purposes of a mortgage approval.

By contrast, for people whom are owners of their automobiles, car payments must only be added to debt ratios if more than 10 car payments remain until the car’s loan is paid-in-full. For homeowners and buyers in Columbus , this can improve debt-to-income ratios and support a higher purchase price on a home.

There is no firm rule for whether it better to lease a car or to own one. The arguments for both sides are compelling and reasonable. Start with the video, then do your own research.

Homebuilder Confidence Rises To 5-Year High

Home Affordability Sinks For The First Time In 12 Months

Should You Lease Or Buy Your Next Car? It May Affect Your Mortgage.

The Latest Articles

Our Location